“Higher supply over the next few weeks and cooler weather may mark a seasonal low for Nymex gas futures before they recover in the autumn.” Seasonal things happen periodically, during a certain season. Seasonal and seasonable are sometimes interchanged, probably because of their obvious connection with season. The resulting seasonally adjusted data are used, for example, when analyzing or reporting non-seasonal trends over durations rather longer than the seasonal period.
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The Northern Hemisphere experiences most direct sunlight during May, June, and July (thus the traditional celebration of Midsummer in June), as the hemisphere faces the Sun. In temperate and polar regions, the seasons are marked by changes in the intensity of sunlight that reaches the Earth’s surface, variations of which may cause animals to undergo hibernation or to migrate, and plants to be dormant. A season is a division of the year based on changes in weather, ecology, and the number of daylight hours in a given region.
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Seasonal reckoning in the military of any country or region tends to be very fluid and based mainly on short to medium term weather conditions that are independent of the calendar. Seasonal weather and climate conditions can become important in the context of military operations. Eventually, it does go below the horizon, for progressively longer periods each day until around the middle of October, when it disappears for the last time until the following February. Any point north of the Arctic Circle or south of the Antarctic Circle will have one period in the summer called ”polar day” when the sun does not set, and one period in the winter called ’polar night’ when the sun does not rise. There is no noticeable change in the amount of sunlight at different times of the year. In the tropics, where seasonal dates also vary, it is more common to speak of the rainy (or wet, or monsoon) season versus the dry season.
- For navies, the presence of accessible ports and bases can allow naval operations during certain (variable) seasons of the year.
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- A really good way to find periodicity, including seasonality, in any regular series of data is to remove any overall trend first and then to inspect time periodicity.
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- Seasonal and seasonable are sometimes interchanged, probably because of their obvious connection with season.
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- The index is based on a mean of 100, with the degree of seasonality measured by variations away from the base.
Semiregular cyclic variations might be dealt with by spectral density estimation. The result gives some points where the two values are close together ( no seasonality ), but other points where there is a large discrepancy. An autocorrelation plot (ACF) can be used to identify seasonality, as it calculates the difference (residual amount) between a Y value and a lagged value of Y.
Change over time
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This may require training, periodic maintenance, and so forth that can be organized in advance. The latter occur when the data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period. Pre-modern armies, especially in Europe, tended to campaign in the summer months – peasant conscripts tended to melt away at harvest time, nor did it make economic sense in an agricultural society to neglect the sowing season.
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For example, for monthly data, if there is a seasonality effect, we would expect to see significant peaks at lag 12, 24, 36, and so on (although the intensity may decrease the further out we go). However, if the period is not known, the autocorrelation plot can help. Apart from these considerations, the organisations need to know if variation they have experienced has been more or less than the expected amount, beyond what the usual seasonal variations account for.